Deconfusion device

Advice for (potential) PhD students

What I wish I knew in 2019

Jun 28, 2024 • 

Joshua Blake

2

January 2024

Forecasting accidentally-caused pandemics

How many does history tell us to expect?

Jan 17, 2024 • 

Joshua Blake

1

December 2023

Cost-effective pandemic preparedness

In this post, I outline, at a high-level, my thoughts on pandemic preparedness. I cover threats regardless of origin (zoonotic, diseases spread from…

Dec 21, 2023 • 

Joshua Blake

July 2023

Topping the Metaculus beginner tournament

Metaculus, a community-based platform known for its prediction competitions, recently hosted a beginner forecasting tournament. If you’re new to this…

Jul 29, 2023 • 

Joshua Blake

June 2023

My doubts about longtermism

“Longtermism is the view that we should be doing much more to protect future generations.” The philosophy has gained a large prominence within Effective…

Jun 3, 2023 • 

Joshua Blake

1

April 2023

Improve your forecasts of events: use the gamma-Poisson model

Forecasters often strive to predict the rate at which events occur1. However, traditional models used by forecasters, such as Laplace’s rule (based on…

Apr 23, 2023 • 

Joshua Blake