Deconfusion device
Subscribe
Sign in
Home
Archive
About
Advice for (potential) PhD students
What I wish I knew in 2019
Jun 28
•
Joshua Blake
Share this post
Deconfusion device
Advice for (potential) PhD students
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
2
January 2024
Forecasting accidentally-caused pandemics
How many does history tell us to expect?
Jan 17
•
Joshua Blake
1
Share this post
Deconfusion device
Forecasting accidentally-caused pandemics
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
December 2023
Cost-effective pandemic preparedness
In this post, I outline, at a high-level, my thoughts on pandemic preparedness. I cover threats regardless of origin (zoonotic, diseases spread from…
Dec 21, 2023
•
Joshua Blake
Share this post
Deconfusion device
Cost-effective pandemic preparedness
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
July 2023
Topping the Metaculus beginner tournament
Metaculus, a community-based platform known for its prediction competitions, recently hosted a beginner forecasting tournament. If you’re new to this…
Jul 29, 2023
•
Joshua Blake
Share this post
Deconfusion device
Topping the Metaculus beginner tournament
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
June 2023
My doubts about longtermism
“Longtermism is the view that we should be doing much more to protect future generations.” The philosophy has gained a large prominence within Effective…
Jun 3, 2023
•
Joshua Blake
1
Share this post
Deconfusion device
My doubts about longtermism
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
April 2023
Improve your forecasts of events: use the gamma-Poisson model
Forecasters often strive to predict the rate at which events occur1. However, traditional models used by forecasters, such as Laplace’s rule (based on…
Apr 23, 2023
•
Joshua Blake
Share this post
Deconfusion device
Improve your forecasts of events: use the gamma-Poisson model
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
Share
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please
turn on JavaScript
or unblock scripts