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Advice for (potential) PhD students
What I wish I knew in 2019
Jun 28, 2024
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Joshua Blake
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Forecasting accidentally-caused pandemics
How many does history tell us to expect?
Jan 17, 2024
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Joshua Blake
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Cost-effective pandemic preparedness
In this post, I outline, at a high-level, my thoughts on pandemic preparedness. I cover threats regardless of origin (zoonotic, diseases spread from…
Dec 21, 2023
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Joshua Blake
Topping the Metaculus beginner tournament
Metaculus, a community-based platform known for its prediction competitions, recently hosted a beginner forecasting tournament. If you’re new to this…
Jul 29, 2023
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Joshua Blake
My doubts about longtermism
“Longtermism is the view that we should be doing much more to protect future generations.” The philosophy has gained a large prominence within Effective…
Jun 3, 2023
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Joshua Blake
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Improve your forecasts of events: use the gamma-Poisson model
Forecasters often strive to predict the rate at which events occur1. However, traditional models used by forecasters, such as Laplace’s rule (based on…
Apr 23, 2023
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Joshua Blake
Deconfusion device
Failing to understand the world, learning a little along the way
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