Metaculus, a community-based platform known for its prediction competitions, recently hosted a beginner forecasting tournament. If you’re new to this, forecasting tournaments involve making predictions on a wide range of topics, with the accuracy of those predictions determining the winners. My involvement was rather successful, simply by applying the basic principles of forecasting. In fact, I found myself, somewhat surprisingly, at the top of the leaderboard, despite my dwindling activity in the competition’s closing weeks. However, I did not officially win because I had a Metaculus account from before this year (previously,